ATLANTA — A new poll shows Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is struggling in Georgia and Rick Santorum is closing in on Newt Gingrich less than a month before the state presidential primary.

A Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone poll of Georgia Republican voters found Gingrich leads the GOP race with 35 percent, followed by Santorum with 26 percent, Romney with 16 percent and Ron Paul with 5 percent.

Santorum’s surge in Georgia comes after he swept a series of contests in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado on Tuesday. The poll of 1,475 likely voters was taken the day after.

“The winner enjoys a 5- to 7-point bounce the day after to 48 hours then 72 to 96 hours. That evaporates unless there’s something to sustain it, so it’s been pop drop, pop drop almost all the way across this field,” Channel 2 political analyst Bill Crane said.

Crane told Channel 2 political reporter Lori Geary it’s crucial for Gingrich to win Georgia because he considers it home base, but Gingrich and Santorum will battle for the evangelical and tea party vote.

“The intangible thing you want more than anything in politics, more than money, more than organization is momentum. The key is having momentum at the right time,” Crane said.

Gingrich and Santorum won backing from Georgia Right to Life on Friday.

The poll showed about 18 percent of Georgian Republican voters remain undecided.

“I think it’s going good. I think we’re getting a lot of viewpoints,” Republican voter Steve Balmes said.

“It doesn’t seem like the Republicans seem all that enthused with any of their candidates,” Democratic voter Steve Simonsen told Geary. “My vote is already in the White House. I’m watching with interest.”

The state presidential primary is on March 6.
Channel 2′s Lori Geary contributed to this story. Follow her on Twitter @lorigeary.

Poll Crosstabs

ATLANTA — Cutting more than one-tenth of the already stretched budget and grappling with a shortage of HOPE and Pre-K funds, various immigration restrictions and the need to find more water for metro Atlanta rank among the top the issues facing the new government that takes office Monday.

Other topics will also come up among the roughly 3,000 pieces of legislation to be introduced by those taking the oath of office. An increasingly conservative, Republican majority means matters such as abortion, the Sunday sales of alcohol and expansion of gambling are likely to generate sparks even if they don’t pass.

Gov.-elect Nathan Deal heads the list of officeholders coming to power, and there’s no shortage of advice for him on what his priorities should be.

Last week, retiring Gov. Sonny Perdue suggested Deal keep his eye on employment.

“Creating jobs for Georgians, as everyone knows, I think would be very, very important,” Perdue said.

Indeed, voters told pollsters hiring was the No. 1 issue in the fall elections.

Georgia Chamber of Commerce President Chris Clark praised Deal for retaining that focus since the campaign.

“Governor Deal is already doing exactly what he should be doing — focusing on improving the state’s economy and looking for ways to create new jobs,” he said. “There is nothing more important that we can do right now.”

Republican political consultant Mark Rountree of Landmark Communication has strategic advice.

“Keep your governing coalition of conservative Georgians unified by opposing tax increases while privatizing government services and creating public-private partnerships to water and transportation,” he said. “Sound doctrine is sound politics.”

Others say too much has already been cut from vital government services.

“However, a realistic assessment of our present situation indicates that it is no longer possible to address our fiscal condition by only focusing on the spending side of the budget; more balanced and nuanced solutions are required,” said Thomas Lauth, dean of the School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Georgia and a professor of government finance.

Additional pieces of advice range from announcing budget vetoes sooner so state agencies aren’t left wondering what they’ll have to spend, to creating a task force on new ideas.

And finally, there’s the advice that Deal not forget to savor where you are, advises Bert Brantley, outgoing communications director to Perdue.

“You end up working so hard and so fast that the days, weeks and years can go by in a flash if you don’t stop and appreciate it,” Brantley said.

Major issues before the General Assembly

Budget The state’s spending is projected to be as much as $2 billion — or more than 10 percent — over next year’s expected tax collections. Previous sessions would have already had to cut this much from the budget if federal stimulus money weren’t filling the hole, but that money expires in July.

HOPE/Pre-K Despite annual record growth in sales, the Georgia Lottery Corporation no longer generates enough money to fully fund the scholarship and prekindergarten programs without using reserves. Deal has said he favors toughening the qualifications for HOPE to reduce the outflow of funds, but many groups are opposed.

Immigration Lawmakers have worked since the last legislative session on new restrictions to people living in the state without proof of citizenship or a visa. Their proposals have already sparked protests leading to arrests, and demonstrators promised to be more visible during the session.

Reservoirs Deal has said he will recommend the state issue bonds to pay for the construction of a network of reservoirs as well as authorizing some ways that private companies can make enough profit to encourage them to invest in reservoir construction.

Interbasin transfers Downstream communities and environmentalists say they’ll push to impose strict regulations on the transfer of water from one river basin to another. Their goal is to stop metro Atlanta from monopolizing natural resources or harming aquatic wildlife.

Tax reform A task force has recommended taxing groceries, lowering income taxes, raising the tax on cigarettes and other changes to the tax code. While lawmakers must vote on the whole package of changes without amending it, the debate is still expected to be long and contentious.

Medical-malpractice caps Business and medical groups want the legislature to make another attempt at capping how much juries can award in cases of medical malpractice. The Georgia Supreme Court found the original law imposing a cap to be unconstitutional.

Hospital bed tax Hospital advocates are expected to lobby to remove the 1.5 percent tax on their revenues levied last year to fund a boost in Medicaid payout to doctors.

Payday lending Companies that want to make small, high-fee loans “until the next payday” are looking for allies in their effort to repeal restrictions essentially outlawing their practices.

Juvenile-law update A sweeping update to the laws governing juveniles is a holdover from the two previous sessions. While many of the controversial proposals have been removed, children’s advocates still argue it’s needed.

Zero-based budgeting Gov. Sonny Perdue vetoed legislation to subject every penny of state spending to legislative review each year because he said it would be too cumbersome. Legislative leaders have considered overriding the veto or passing the bills yet again for Deal to sign.

Health-insurance exchanges One of the provisions of federal health reform requires states to establish ways for people to easily shop for insurance and find bargains. There are different ways these exchanges can be set up.

Redistricting While most observers expect redistricting to wait until a special session around August, many ambitious legislators will be trading votes during the regular session in hopes of winning enough support to draw a district they can win higher office in. Others will predict that they’ll be left with unwinnable seats and will rush to complete their personal legislative agendas before their final terms in office end next year.

By BLAKE AUED – blake.aued@onlineathens.com

Published Thursday, December 30, 2010

Kemp, a Republican, took on a liberal incumbent, Doug Haines, in 2002 for a Democratic-leaning state Senate seat representing Clarke and Oconee counties.

“If I had been a little smarter politically, I probably wouldn’t have run in the first place,” Kemp said.

But he did, and he won. A few party-switchers later, Republicans took over the state Senate for the first time since Reconstruction. Georgia voters also put a Republican, Sonny Perdue, into the governor’s office for the first time in 130 years.

The issue at the time, as Kemp recalled, was the gerrymandered district maps Democrats drew in an effort to cling to power in a state that clearly was trending Republican.

The maps angered conservatives and moderates who turned out in droves, he said.

“Obviously, it was one of those elections where the Republican turnout was huge,” he said. “We had a lot of crossover votes, and we targeted a lot of independent voters as well.”

Courts drew new district lines for the 2004 election, and another Republican landslide turned control of the state House of Representatives over to the GOP. Two years later, Republicans also took the offices of lieutenant governor and secretary of state.

But the Republican takeover was not yet complete. Three statewide Democrats – Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond, Attorney General Thurbert Baker and Agriculture Commissioner Tommy Irvin – kept their jobs by wide margins.

All three abandoned their posts this year. Thurmond ran for U.S. Senate, Baker ran for governor, and Irvin retired. Republicans filled all three slots in November as voters who’d split their tickets in the past voted straight party line.

“You could certainly feel the change, that if somebody decided to leave, there would be an opportunity for Republicans to fill those seats,” Kemp said.

President Obama’s strong showing in Georgia in 2008 and former Gov. Roy Barnes’ deep pockets gave Democrats hope in 2010. But it wasn’t even close. Every statewide Republican on the ballot won by double-digit margins. Republican Austin Scott finally ousted U.S. Rep. Jim Marshall of Macon, a long-time target, and little-known Mike Keown nearly took out Rep. Sanford Bishop of Albany, whose seat was considered safe until recently. The results surprised even House Speaker David Ralston.

“I didn’t think the swing would be as absolutely overwhelming as it was,” said Ralston, R-Blue Ridge.

And the Republicans weren’t done yet. As of last week, eight formerly Democratic legislators switched to the GOP, including state Reps. Doug McKillip of Athens and Alan Powell of Hartwell. Both said joining the majority is the only way to get anything done.

“This is a one-party state,” McKillip declared.

While Powell’s switch made sense – he is a conservative in a conservative district – McKillip’s floored Democrats. His Central Athens district is one of most liberal in the state, and he had been elected to a party leadership position just weeks before.

“It’s very disappointing to me, and baffling,” Clarke County Democratic Committee Chairman Bill Overend said. “I don’t get it.”

Republicans are now just a handful of seats away from complete control – being able to pass constitutional amendments or override a governor’s veto by themselves.

Opinions vary on why Republicans dominated this November. Democratic Party of Georgia Chairwoman Jane Kidd blamed it on a backlash against Obama and efforts to tie him to Barnes. Carol Porter, the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, cited lackluster fundraising and poor communication. Ralston said that most Georgia voters are simply conservative and saw the Democrats moving to the left.

Many Republicans say the shift is here to stay.

“I think we’ve shown, for the most part, that we’ve been able to govern, even in some difficult times,” Kemp said.

But Republican pollster Mark Rountree warned that, in the long run, demographic trends are in Democrats’ favor. Democratic-leaning minority groups are growing faster than heavily Republican whites, and populous GOP strongholds like Gwinnett County are getting ready to flip one day.

“Georgia is going to change,” Rountree said. “This is the high-water mark.”

Democrats, meanwhile, haven’t settled on a strategy for fighting back. Where they go from here will depend on who state committee members elect to party leadership positions Jan. 29 in Warner Robins.

Now that Republicans have a grip on every lever of power in state government, they’re turning their attention to the partisan races for county commission, sheriff and other local offices, Kemp said. Already, a black Democratic commissioner in Hall County made national news by becoming a Republican.

“The place where we can really build the party now is at the local level, not so much the legislature,” Kemp said.

You can find the full article here.

Last week’s release of new Census numbers may have been a boon for Republicans across the nation.

Mark Rountree, a Duluth political consultant, ran the numbers and said that while the increase in electoral votes wouldn’t have pushed John McCain over Barack Obama in 2008, the news could be different for 2012.

In all, the McCain states grabbed six more votes in the Electoral College, gaining congressional districts in those areas, while many of Obama’s states experienced a loss of population.

While Obama won North Carolina, Indiana, Florida and Ohio in 2008, Rountree pointed out that those states used to be considered dependable red states, and the president had a small margin of victory there.

“Obama’s numbers have collapsed in these four crucial red states, with the GOP making huge gains in all of them in 2010. Polls say that McCain would clearly win these four states today,” Rountree wrote in a press release from his company, Landmark Communications.

The shift would add 73 more votes to the 179 McCain won in 2008, giving the 2012 Republican nominee a base of 252 electoral votes in 2012, 18 short of the 270 needed to win.

According to Rountree, the electoral math makes Virginia and its 13 votes the first key battleground state, and he pointed out that the GOP elected a new governor there in 2009. That would leave the party with one more state needed for the win, and he recommends Nevada (six votes), Iowa (six), Colorado (nine), Wisconsin (10) or Minnesota (10). All five have had GOP gains since Obama’s election, he points out, with Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa now having Republican governors and majorities in the House and Senate.

“The 2010 reapportionment essentially gives Republicans an additional crucial mid-sized state of six electoral votes toward the goal of 270. The GOP now needs to switch only one traditionally blue state to red in order to win,” Rountree said. “Reapportionment could be the defining moment of the yet-to-be-held 2012 presidential election.”

You can find the full article here.

Political Notebook appears in the Thursday and Sunday editions of the Gwinnett Daily Post.

Camie Young can be reached via e-mail at camie.young@gwinnettdailypost.com.

“New State-by-State Battleground:
2010 Census Results A Disaster for Obama Re-election”

Mark Rountree
President, Landmark Communications, Inc.
www.LandmarkCommunications.net
(404) 245-2057
December 21, 2010

John McCain won 173 electoral votes in the 2008 presidential election, but needed 270 to win.

However, based on the 2010 Census numbers released today, the states that McCain won have experienced a substantial net increase in population, while the states won by Obama experienced a net loss of population.

These population changes result in a net six (6) additional Electoral Votes in the “McCain states.” In other words, states that went for McCain now hold 179 Electoral Votes:  270 votes are still required to win.

But much has changed in two years since Obama’s election.

In elections prior to 2008, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida and Ohio were widely considered to be strong “Red States,” dependably Republican states.

Obama won in states that now clearly and strongly oppose his re-election. On virtually the most popular day of Obama’s life in November 2008, the President only won North Carolina (which has 15 Electoral Votes) by 1%. In Indiana, with 11 Electoral Votes, Obama just won by 1%. In Ohio, now with 18 Electoral Votes, Obama won by only 4%; and Obama won Florida’s 29 EVs by just 3%.

Obama’s numbers have collapsed in these four crucial Red States, with the GOP making huge gains in all of them in 2010.  Polls say that McCain would clearly win these four states today.

In three of these states Republicans now hold total control: Ohio, Indiana and Florida. These three have Republican governors as well as majorities in both the House and Senate. In North Carolina, the GOP controls both the House and Senate, though the governor there is a Democrat (who was elected in 2008, before Obama’s numbers collapsed).

What does this mean in terms of the Presidential Election?

The 2012 Republican nominee starts with a base of the 179 “McCain state” Electoral Votes (post-reapportionment), plus an almost certain additional 73 votes from North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Indiana.

That means the Republican nominee starts with a base of 252 Electoral Votes in 2012, 18 short of the 270 needed to win.

VIRGINIA, with 13 Electoral Votes, becomes the first key battleground, and today it would clearly go Republican. Republicans took back this state in 2009 with the election of a new Governor. Obama however carried the state by just 6%. Winning Virginia means the GOP would have 265 Electoral Votes, five short.

If the GOP wins Virginia, it only needs one more state to win the required 270+ Electoral votes. The easiest state-by-state path to success would be through Nevada (6 EV), Iowa (6 EV), Colorado (9 EV), Wisconsin (10 EV), or Minnesota (10 EV).

Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa all have all changed since Obama’s election, and today the GOP holds dominant control in all three: Republican Governors as well as GOP majorities in both the House and the Senate.  Nevada now has a GOP governor, and the GOP holds the House in Colorado.

The 2010 reapportionment essentially gives Republicans an additional crucial mid-sized state of six Electoral Votes toward the goal of 270. The GOP now needs to switch only one traditionally Blue State to Red in order to win. Reapportionment could be the defining moment of the yet-to-be-held 2012 Presidential Election.

Go here for the published column in WeArePolitics.com

Mark Rountree is President of Landmark Communications, Inc., a political consulting firm based in metro Atlanta. Landmark is a full-service political consulting and communications firm based in metro Atlanta, Georgia. With a staff of eight, 20 years in continual operation, and professional engagement in more than 800 different elections, Landmark is Georgia’s most experienced and successful political consulting firm.

ATLANTA — It’s a tight race for governor right now between Roy Barnes and Nathan Deal.

Today the candidates are flying across the state, trying to drum up last-minute support.

Republican Nathan Deal jumped on a plane and left Peachtree DeKalb Airport this morning.

He was joined by Gov. Sonny Perdue, Sens. Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson, and Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle. They are in Augusta as of now.

Earlier today they made stops in Columbus, Macon, Tifton and Savannah.

Democrat Roy Barnes is in Macon right now. He also made stops in Savannah, Albany, Valdosta and Macon.

Barnes and Deal are expected to end their days in Atlanta.

CBS Atlanta teamed up with Landmark communications to bring you the most up-to-date numbers in the governor’s race.

The final numbers before Election Day haven’t drastically changed.

Deal leads 47 to 41 percent, short of the 50-percent mark that would avoid a runoff.

But we also asked voters what’s driving them in this race and what the winner needs to do once in office.

Nearly every person we spoke to said creating job is the No. 1 issue for Georgia’s next governor.

In an exclusive Landmark Communications poll 65 percent of those polled agree, with controlling spending and education next on people’s minds.

Many of the voters we spoke to said they don’t vote based solely on a candidate’s political party.

Mark Rountree, president of Landmark Communications, said that’s not what the poll found.

“There really were not any numbers that were very strong when it comes to issue-based reasons to vote for these candidates. This has really become a nationalized election. They’re voting based on sending a message one way or another,” said Rountree.

The poll found that 49 percent said political party is their main motivator in this race 23 percent using the candidates’ specific economic plan to decide.

But no matter the reason, with just a 6 percentage point lead going into the final day, Rountree says Deal has to focus on turning out very specific groups if he wants to avoid a runoff.

“If there is a surge in North Georgia, if there is a surge among male voters among older voters, then it’s possible for Deal to win this without a runoff tomorrow,” said Rountree. The poll also asked people if they’d already voted, and though Deal still leads among early voters, he’s only leading by 2 points.

Rountree said if it goes to a runoff Barnes will have to continue a barrage of negative attacks to have a chance to win.

Landmark Communications is a Republican firm, but they also work with Democrats.